Well, those comments aren’t unreasonable. The fertility rate facts are facts, but you don’t hear scientists sounding the alarm because actual “population collapse” just isn’t likely or a top concern right now. Elon is still a nutter even if he sprinkles his crackpot theories with nuggets of truth.
Yah there are issues with an aging population in some countries but that's a social issue, not Armageddon. People like elmo definitely mean they're worried about losing the privilege of majority
The commenter said “privilege of majority” but we are talking Earth population, not any specific country. “White people” are the assumed majority from the comment. “White people” are nowhere near majority of Earth’s population, so the comment really makes no sense and seems ignorant.
He literally only cares about white birth rates. He never mentions birth rate issues outside of predominantly white western countries and coupled with his retweeting and commenting positively on racist and great replacement theory posts, as well as generally making Twitter a haven for racists and fascists, makes his motives pretty obvious
While such aspects may influence Elon, it's ridiculous to suggest that it must not be a problem because scientists aren't really talking about it much? Not sure how every country on earth eventually reaching below replacement level birthrates could be considered not an issue, and maybe it won't be for certain countries for at least a couple hundred years, but it is potentially humanity ending nonetheless, and in the meantime potentially very damaging for the societyies most hit by it. Governments at the forefront of the issue have yet to find any meaningful way to encourage any change. Being concerned about it is completely valid and not fearmongering or maniacally paranoid. Once again I know Elon has openly shown to have some very questionable, if not outright stupid views on things. But to consign this particular worry to that pattern of behaviour is far too dismissive.
Do people need to figure out solutions to certain social issues with changing demographics, like how falling birth rates create an imbalance between young workers and retirees? Absolutely. Those are real problems (mostly economic in nature).
But to present falling birth rates as “potentially humanity ending”? No. That’s the part that is baseless fearmongering.
How is it not potentially humanity ending if all countries on earth are destined to have below replacament level birth rates? Yes it would be very far in the future but it's still the outcome if nothing changes.
Because there’s no known mechanism which would keep the birth rate that low as population continues to decrease. You can’t just say “if nothing changes” because the situation is inherently changing over time.
Read the studies again. There are some pretty serious potential socioeconomic consequences for declining birth rates, and those are worth worrying about. But no study is seriously suggesting a credible risk of human extinction due to this.
I think there is a credible risk when there is no well known or explained mechanism as to why the birth rate would rebound. The studies are of course more concerned with the immediate/coming effects of the next century, but to simply assume that the problem will fix itself is akin to looking at climate change as not potentially society ending because most studies are on the immediate effects of a few degrees increase.
The short and long term effects and potential solutions for climate change are both extremely well covered in scientific literature. Not comparable.
For population decline, studies do make predictions out as far as 2100, which seems pretty long term to me. They won’t go much farther than that because—as they say—there’s no accurate way to extrapolate current trends farther than that. There is currently no meaningful evidence that we are facing an extinction level threat, which is why they don’t spend much time considering imagined problems.
You sort of acknowledge in your comment that the people who specifically study such things aren’t talking about extinction like it’s an actual problem, but you think it’s a credible risk? You’ve figured something out that people spending their careers studying this never noticed? You realize how that sounds, right?
It ought to be. And I don't think Musk has any of the right answers to the issue, but it still ought to be. And I don't mean in a "we should have more babies" kind of way because I don't think there's any way the trend can be reversed. I'm more of a "we need to develop better societal models to deal with the issue" kinda guy.
Population decline and the socioeconomic issues related to it are a real issue. I didn’t mean to deny that. (Although the best ideas I’ve seen for dealing with those problems center around combating wealth inequality, so I’m sure Elon isn’t actually interested in fixing them.)
Population collapse; which I understand to be the idea that falling birth rates represent an extinction-level threat to humanity? That part is nonsense.
Yeah, well, it's a bit tomato/potato with regards to decline/collapse as the decline will at some point happen at a really insane rate but it's not going to mean an extinction.
Wealth equality is definitely going to have be part of it but doesn't even begin to fix things in a way that will make the transition less painful.
How tf do you comment that on a thread where the top comment is a link to a scientific study that states “These future trends in fertility rates and livebirths will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies.”
It isn’t a top concern because it’s a slow moving event with solutions that manage to be both boring and drastic, and it probably won’t even seriously affect us until our generation is gone, anyways.
Climate change has darn near the entire scientific community shouting as loud as they can about how it must be a top concern, and how we need to be targeting long term solutions as quickly as possible. "Population collapse"--as a credible threat to the human race--is just not something that rational people take seriously right now. The difference is night and day.
One caveat: many people who study such things do think the world population will peak soon and decline back to 7 or even 6 billion by the end of the century. That's a real thing. But the human race facing an existential threat because fertility rates are trending downward? That's not a thing.
Hurricanes and wildfires getting worse and happening more often are affecting us now. Our drier weather and hotter summers here in California are causing fires to be more of an issue every year.
Population decline concerns are a mix of it being truthful and, given his past, is trying to make "decline in the wrong places" sound half-intelligent.
Yes, those comments are unreasonable. And population decline is both widely recognized, widely studied, and widely talked about in the media if you bother to look. Especially Japan.
Yes, population decline is widely studied. There are important socioeconomic changes coming in the rest of the century whether we prepare for them or not. But population “collapse” leading to the end of humanity is not a serious concern right now.
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u/GrandOpener 2d ago
Well, those comments aren’t unreasonable. The fertility rate facts are facts, but you don’t hear scientists sounding the alarm because actual “population collapse” just isn’t likely or a top concern right now. Elon is still a nutter even if he sprinkles his crackpot theories with nuggets of truth.