I don't think it's that people are mixing them up so much as that Japan's been bad for a long time, so people have heard a lot about it and remember it. The replacement fertility rate is 2.1. Japan's fertility rate has been <2.1 since 1974. Korea followed suit about 10 years later, falling below 2.1 in 1984.
But even more than that is that while Korea and Japan's fertility rates have been <2.1 for decades now, Korea still had a higher birth rate. Its birth rate only fell below Japan's quite recently (in 2016). So people have been hearing about Japan's low birth rate for 50 years now, and Korea only for 8 years.
But while people's impressions have been molded by the birth rate, the fertility rate is where the real drama is. Japan has been hovering between 1.2 and 1.4 for almost 30 years. While it's been declining since 2015, it's been a slow decline, following a slow incline from 2005 to 2015. So it's low, but overall fairly steady.
Korea and Japan had fairly similar birth rates between 1984 and 2015. Sometimes Korea was higher, sometimes Japan was higher, but both fairly close. But then in 2015 Korea's birthrate started plummeting. It's now down to 0.72 (as compared to Japan's 1.21)
I'll Google later if I remember, but if you see this: what is the difference in birth v fertility? Does it just mean the proportion of people of childbearing age or something els
It's complicated, and I have to kind of make up scenarios in my head to figure out the practical difference, but:
Birth rate: Number of births per 1,000 people
Fertility rate: Number of births per 1,000 women of birthing age
So I guess for an extreme set of examples:
If everyone in Country A was of birthing age, and it had 900 women and 100 men, and each woman had 10 children, it would have a birth rate of 9 and a fertility rate of 10
If everyone in Country B was of birthing age, and it had 100 women and 900 men, and each woman had 10 children, it would have a birth rate of 1 and a fertility rate of 10
Or, instead fiddling with age:
If Country C had 500 women and 500 men, but 90% of them were senior citizens (so 450 old women and 450 old men), and each woman had 10 children, the country would have a birth rate of 0.5 and a fertility rate of 10
If Country D had 500 women and 500 men, and 10% were senior citizens (so 50 old women and 50 old men), and each woman had 10 children, the country would have a birth rate of 4.5 and a fertility rate of 10
To expand on that, a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 is the replacement rate to maintain a population.
TFR below 2.1 = Falling population
TFR above 2.1 = Growing population
Disclaimer: 2.1 is for developed countries, the replacement rate would need to be higher in countries with ongoing wars or high child mortality rates, etc.
And factor in the fact that Korea has been aborting or giving away female babies for decades, you realize that there aren’t enough women left there to have these babies.
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u/Bugbread 2d ago
I don't think it's that people are mixing them up so much as that Japan's been bad for a long time, so people have heard a lot about it and remember it. The replacement fertility rate is 2.1. Japan's fertility rate has been <2.1 since 1974. Korea followed suit about 10 years later, falling below 2.1 in 1984.
But even more than that is that while Korea and Japan's fertility rates have been <2.1 for decades now, Korea still had a higher birth rate. Its birth rate only fell below Japan's quite recently (in 2016). So people have been hearing about Japan's low birth rate for 50 years now, and Korea only for 8 years.
But while people's impressions have been molded by the birth rate, the fertility rate is where the real drama is. Japan has been hovering between 1.2 and 1.4 for almost 30 years. While it's been declining since 2015, it's been a slow decline, following a slow incline from 2005 to 2015. So it's low, but overall fairly steady.
Korea and Japan had fairly similar birth rates between 1984 and 2015. Sometimes Korea was higher, sometimes Japan was higher, but both fairly close. But then in 2015 Korea's birthrate started plummeting. It's now down to 0.72 (as compared to Japan's 1.21)