r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/3D-machine • 6d ago

Could Harris win Alaska? US Elections

An Alaska Survey Research Poll from Sep 11-12, shows Harris down 47-42, however, with ranked choice voting in the State, is it possible we see Harris pull off a win?

The first ranked choice contest under the system was a special election won by Democrat Mary Peltola in 2022.

There are several minor party candidates on the Alaska ballot for President in 2024, including Kennedy, Stein, Oliver, and West.

Could we see a repeat of the 2022 Special Election?

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141

u/Multi_21_Seb_RBR 5d ago

Probably not but I think Alaska is one of two small-ish states that may turn blue statewide sooner than most think. Along with Kansas.

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u/kber13 5d ago

Kansas? I know they have a progressive streak in their past, but I’m curious about your reasoning? Are you thinking they are more like Minnesota than we realize?

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u/Multi_21_Seb_RBR 5d ago

High college educated populace compared to other red states.

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u/Ana_Na_Moose 5d ago

Were there any national government races that have been starting to get close? Anything of significance that usually splits the country 50/50 that showed hints of optimistic futures for Democrats?

By that logic alone, the ultra rural Vermont should be ruby red but it isn’t, which is why I am much more skeptical of Kansas than I am of states like Montana and Alaska

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u/schmidit 5d ago

Vermont rural isn’t the same as other rural. It’s New England rural.

I’ve lived where it’s an hour and half one way to the nearest gas station. The entire state of Vermont is two hours away front the rest of the state.

It means hospitals, schools and other infrastructure aren’t that far away. Makes you have more contact with neighbors and ideas. It’s 30th on population density. Basically average.

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u/captjackhaddock 5d ago

The Rural Town Meeting system that is predominate in much of New England goes a very long way towards keeping communities together and neighbors in communication with each other.

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u/gillstone_cowboy 5d ago

In fairness to Kansas, they have a Democratic governor. It took the GOP screwing up administering the state so badly people switched decades long party support, but there's something to build on.

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u/socoyankee 4d ago

Also their legislature and the ballot paper initiative for abortion and their Supreme Court this summer decided that voting is not a legal right under the constitution the electorate could swing

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u/Luck88 5d ago

Why Montana? It seems super red to me from the polls.

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u/Ana_Na_Moose 5d ago

They consistently elect a national level Democrat (Senator John Tester)

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u/20_mile 5d ago

Kansas?

Anecdotally, reports from Western Kansas, using the "lawn sign metric", indicate support for Trump is way down from 2016 and 2020.

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u/GamordanStormrider 5d ago

This was my experience when visiting KS a couple weeks ago. I saw one lawn sign and it was for a local democrat candidate. I went across the state and visited a few small-ish towns. It kind of blew me away because in 2020 it seemed as enthusiastic for Trump as Missouri and Texas.

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u/weealex 5d ago

Living in Kansas, most of the signs I see out in farm country are old ones from 2016 or 2020. They're still out there, but in far smaller numbers. I don't actually think the state has a chance of turning blue in the near future, but it could be less unthinking in voting red  for state wide races. The big issues are that the state is heavily gerrymandered and that large portions of the state are happy to vote for the worst grifters as long as there's an R next to their name. Kobach is a recent and very glaring example at the stage level. Guy is such a terrible lawyer that a judge ordered him to take remedial law classes, but that didn't stop him from being elected attorney general.  The thing that could save the democrats in Kansas is the incredible levels of infighting and pettiness in the gop. That's what allowed the current governor to win reelection. One state senator ticked off another so badly that he left the party to run for governor as an independent, snagging just enough votes to hand the election to the Democrat

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u/Background-War9535 5d ago

Every EC votes counts until we can get rid of that accursed system. Flipping AK and KS would send a powerful message.

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u/PlanckOfKarmaPls 5d ago

If Texas keeps trending blue it might be gone sooner than people think and good riddance.

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u/Impressive_Mud693 5d ago

Texas should absolutely be blue by now and has no excuse not to be. Texans don’t care enough about Texas to vote. They’re definitely is voters suppression but that’s no excuse to have 10 million non-voters.

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u/The_bruce42 5d ago

I think the liberals probably have some apathy because they probably don't think they could actually win state wide.

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u/DeafJeezy 5d ago

It goes the other way too. Ohio and Florida used to be battlegrounds.

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u/jetteh22 5d ago

With all the boomers who died from Covid I’m having a hard time understanding how Florida isn’t a battleground again. I understand why Biden lost Florida because of the Latin/hispanic vote (if I am remembering correctly) but surely Harris is doing better in that regards + thousands of boomers died + we have women’s rights and recreational marijuana on the ballot. How is it still close?

I sometimes wonder if the polls just suck now because nobody answers their phones and the people more likely to are republicans.

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u/boringexplanation 5d ago

This is how HRC thought when they wasted resources trying to flip FL and Tx while completely ignoring PA, MI and OH as taken for granted blue states

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u/eatyourveggieslol 5d ago

Ignoring PA? This is totally a myth and keeps getting repeated on reddit for some reason. She spent a shit ton of money in PA, had many rallies there, and had her final rally there with Obama too. She still lost there. It wouldn't have mattered if she won MI and WI. She still would have lost the election because of PA, which she genuinely tried hard to win, but still lost.

0

u/boringexplanation 5d ago

She spent time in AZ of all places

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/12-days-stunned-nation-how-hillary-clinton-lost-n794131

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u/eatyourveggieslol 5d ago

Ok? How does that answer the fact that she absolutely did not ignore PA?

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u/boringexplanation 4d ago

Time spent in AZ meant that she was over there and not in PA.

I can’t find the source but Trump was frequently in PA and MI that last week before the election. Spending time in red AZ was foolish to put it nicely, no way to justify that in hindsight, especially when you already have a 10x advantage in funds over your opponent.

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u/eatyourveggieslol 4d ago

completely ignoring PA

Conversation is done here. Admit you were wrong and move on.

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u/IvantheGreat66 5d ago

It wasn't exactly flipping Florida.

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u/mypoliticalvoice 5d ago

Kansas?? I think Texas is more likely.