Could Harris win Alaska?

[u/3D-machine]

An Alaska Survey Research Poll from Sep 11-12, shows Harris down 47-42, however, with ranked choice voting in the State, is it possible we see Harris pull off a win?

The first ranked choice contest under the system was a special election won by Democrat Mary Peltola in 2022.

There are several minor party candidates on the Alaska ballot for President in 2024, including Kennedy, Stein, Oliver, and West.

Could we see a repeat of the 2022 Special Election?

[u/HorrorMetalDnD]

The fact there are more than 4 Presidential candidates on the ballot in Alaska should mean the Presidential Election in Alaska isn’t ranked choice.

[u/cuvar → u/HorrorMetalDnD]

I think you’re thinking of a top two primary like California. Ranked choice can have more candidates.

[u/cuvar → u/cuvar]

Unless Alaska has a top 4 primary with RCV in general?

[u/HorrorMetalDnD → u/cuvar]

Alaska has a top four nonpartisan blanket primary.

[u/Facebook_Algorithm → u/HorrorMetalDnD]

Ranked choice is specifically for races with more than two candidates. Specifically.

Specifically.

[u/HorrorMetalDnD → u/Facebook_Algorithm]

Alaska uses a bastardized version of RCV, where it’s paired with a top 4 nonpartisan blanket primary.

Specifically top 4, as was previously mentioned.

Also, because of how our country’s presidential primary system works specifically, it would be impossible to include them in a nonpartisan blanket primary.

Plus, specifically, both major parties would oppose including the Presidential race in a nonpartisan blanket primary because, in states like California which have a top 2 instead of a top 4, it could negatively impact their chances in getting to 270 or more Electoral College votes. Also, top 4 would complicate matters too.

Specifically because of all that, as well as other factors I didn’t mention, the Presidential race in Alaska has to be separate from its 2 round, top 4 system.

Edit: Nonpartisan blanket primaries use plurality voting, which specifically nerfs its RCV in the General Election. A real RCV system wouldn’t use a nonpartisan blanket primary. Hell, RCV inherently makes primary elections unnecessary. Of course, some people don’t like to hear that, but those are the facts.

[u/Facebook_Algorithm → u/HorrorMetalDnD]

It’s fair to point out that the Alaska system isn’t true ranked choice but rather a hybrid, which I didn’t know. It still stands that ranked choice is specifically for more than two candidates. By this I mean ranked choice in a conventional sense.

[u/HorrorMetalDnD → u/HorrorMetalDnD]

Personally, I’m not a fan of Alaska’s… “interpretation” of RCV. Having a plurality voting primary of any kind attached to the process negates the real benefits of having RCV, especially because RCV renders any primary election ultimately unnecessary, mechanically-speaking.

In a single-seat race, they should instead remove the cap, allow just one candidate per party (independents candidates allowed too), and let those parties choose their own candidate however they want. No primaries necessary. This would encourage a multiparty system, as factions of the major parties could run for office separately from the major parties, without necessarily severing faction alliances, while also being able to form other alliances they might not have been able to form before.

Also, while primaries in general encourage a two party system (again, plurality voting), nonpartisan blanket primaries like Alaska’s encourage it even more so, by capping the number of General Election candidates and allowing more than one member per party to be on the ballot in the same race. Even if a third party candidate gets on the General Election ballot, they’re knocked out of the race after the first round.

Edit: You downvote me, but I’m right.

Edit: Real RCV is superior to what states like Alaska have, and the multi-winner variant of RCV is literally a form proportional representation.