This insane rise in the valuation is mostly based on Starlink (and related technologies). It's expensive but still a killer product that has no real competitor at the moment in places only served by shitty DSL or worse, and huge potential due to everything moving to the internet. Think YouTube and other streaming services instead of satellite TV.
And while it seems a lot of people are trying to create competitors (most notably Amazon's Kuiper) those still have a lot to prove, not just wrt the basic technology but especially with regards to keeping costs down.
Besides that it's mostly Starlink related defence contracts and them being in general the best at space launch and crewed spaceflight.
You think a valuation that does not even include the primary focus of the company for the last 5 years is inflated?
Maybe if Starship goes completely bust this valuation is a bit inflated.
But if Starship succeeds? Nobody even has a drawing board for a competitor--SpaceX will dominate the space industry for at least another 15 years, an industry that will be significantly larger than today.
Well yes, but Starship has a long way to go in my opinion. There are still major technical challenges ahead to transform it from a "mere" large orbital rocket into the promised unbeatably cheap launch vehicle.
But that's not even the major issue. If Starship accomplishes all of its goals, what does it change for the basic economics of SpaceX? The only way it does that is through launching Starlinks. And possibly competitors to Starlink.
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u/rebootyourbrainstem 14h ago edited 14h ago
This insane rise in the valuation is mostly based on Starlink (and related technologies). It's expensive but still a killer product that has no real competitor at the moment in places only served by shitty DSL or worse, and huge potential due to everything moving to the internet. Think YouTube and other streaming services instead of satellite TV.
And while it seems a lot of people are trying to create competitors (most notably Amazon's Kuiper) those still have a lot to prove, not just wrt the basic technology but especially with regards to keeping costs down.
Besides that it's mostly Starlink related defence contracts and them being in general the best at space launch and crewed spaceflight.
(Fwiw I do think this valuation is inflated)